The effort-duplication heuristic — turn fitness work into race-pace projections

A planning frame Nathan uses to translate sub-maximal fitness work into race-pace projections: if a swimmer holds a 50m at some effort % below max, the implied race pace for double the distance (to failure) is roughly the doubling of the equivalent split. The 80-87% effort framing on a 50m SCM today maps to a ~100m…

1. Effort-duplication heuristic (this page) — forward projection: turn sub-max rep times into expected race outcomes.

This is the planning complement to Threshold Pace Sits 2 3 Seconds Per 25m Off Race Pace. The atom is the diagnostic read on past data ("she's holding 31-32s/25m, race pace is 29s/25m, the gap is 2-3s").

1. Effort % — the intensity of the rep (80-87%, fitness-day load).

How it's structured

The frame, as Nathan stated it (verbatim) > "What we've got here is probably meant to be around 80-87% effort, so we're thinking around 100-me…